|
|
|
Press Release | MED-Amin
15 September 2026
|
|
|
Mediterranean Agricultural Market Information Network
|
|
|
|
|
ECMWF / C3S Project: toward a Mediterranean demonstrator
|
|
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is currently developing a new operational service dedicated to agriculture under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), aimed at providing clear and actionable climate and agroclimate information to support decision-making. This include specific component focusing on the Mediterranean region.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The project is still in its early stages, and the consultancy commissioned by ECMWF is seeking to engage a diverse range of Mediterranean agricultural stakeholders to contribute to the design and testing of these tools. If your are interested, please feel free to complete and disseminate the following short survey:
|
|
|
|
|
Black Sea disruptions continue to impact grain flows and prices
|
|
Repeated attacks and shipping risks are disrupting traditional Black Sea wheat flows, pushing buyers towards alternative origins and routes, and adding pressure on prices.
|
|
|
|
EGYPT
|
"Egyptian wheat import has dropped sharply in August and is expected to decrease further in September, as rising wheat prices outpaced flour values, undermining margins for mills producing flour for re-export."
|
|
UKRAINE
“Prolonged export disruptions, rising logistics costs and weaker farmgate margins could limit Ukrainian farmers’ ability to finance autumn planting, turning the current logistics crisis into a potential 2027 supply risk.”
|
|
BLACK SEA
"As attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure spread across the Black Sea, grain companies are being forced to reconsider how contracts allocate war risk, delay, demurrage, insurance gaps and the cost of failed execution."
|
|
BLACK SEA
"Black Sea shipping disruption is narrowing Russia's delivered-cost advantage over French wheat, opening the door for French cargoes into Egypt."
|
|
ALGERIA
"Grâce à une récolte céréalière prévisionnelle de près de 5 millions de tonnes pour 2026 et à une réorientation précoce de ses approvisionnements vers la Roumanie et la Bulgarie, l’Algérie dispose d’une marge de manœuvre solide face aux perturbations en mer Noire."
|
|
BLACK SEA
"Rail demand is surging towards Vysotsk, Ust-Luga and neighbouring Baltic ports, but limited terminal capacity, longer voyages and sharply higher logistics costs mean the northern corridor can replace only a fraction of Russia’s traditional southern exports."
|
|
BLACK SEA
|
"Black Sea wheat export prices have fallen to a six-year low, yet getting grain to international buyers is becoming more expensive."
|
|
|
|
|
|
EU summer crops largely impacted by drough and heatwaves
|
|
French and Italian maize production was particularly affected, while conditions are more favourable in Greece. Canada’s durum wheat harvest is showing promising prospects, although rainfall is disrupting harvesting operations. Sowing operation for the new winter cereal season could be hampered by dry conditions.
|
|
|
|
GREECE
"As the irrigation season draws to a close, rice producers are focusing on yields and the prices at which their crop will be marketed. Field conditions are generally positive, with cultivation progressing without major problems."
|
|
FRANCE
“Persistent drought in France is threatening the progress and establishment of winter crop planting, while dry conditions contrast with rain-related delays to wheat and canola harvests in Canada.”
|
|
ITALY
"Drought is putting pressure on Italy’s rice production, while preferential trade conditions are increasing competition from imports from South-East Asia."
|
|
CANADA
"Large portions of Saskatchewan and western Manitoba have been deluged by rain, threatening crop quality and delaying harvest activities."
|
|
MOROCCO
“After a more favourable agricultural season, Morocco enters the new campaign with improved prospects, while water availability, planting preparations, export competitiveness and heat impacts remain key issues.”
|
|
FRANCE
"Extreme summer heatwaves could cut French corn production by almost half compared with the five-year average, with AGPM warning of exceptional losses and calling for strong government support."
|
|
EUROPE
"Persistent heat and exceptional water deficits have substantially worsened summer crop prospects across western and most of central Europe, with EU yield forecasts for all summer crops falling below the five-year average by up to 14%."
|
|
CANADA
"Ahead of tomorrow Statistic Canada release, some durum estimates are in the range of 5,9 and 6,6 million tons.."
|
|
GREECE
"Corn harvesting is in full swing across most regions of Greece, with initial producer estimates pointing to a moderate to good season without major problems. Prices are currently ranging between €0.25 and €0.27 per kilogram, with an upward trend compared with last year."
|
|
FRANCE
"France has allocated more than €1 billion in aid to farmers after record heatwaves and drought devastated crops, pastures and water supplies."
|
|
ITALY
"Despite highly volatile weather conditions at the beginning of summer, Italy’s soft wheat harvest has been surprisingly positive, with production approaching 3 million tonnes."
|
|
FRANCE
"Argus expects French wheat exports to non-EU destinations to fall to no more than 6mn t in 2026-27, as a result of poor wheat and corn crops and tight corn supplies in the global market."
|
|
EU
"Persistent heat and drought are expected to cut EU wheat and coarse grain production to 264.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, 8% below last season, while maize output is forecast to fall to its lowest level since 2007/08."
|
|
|
|
|
Pressure from rising Prices and production costs
|
|
Food inflation continues to affect several MED-Amin countries, while some of them are active on international markets to secure cereal supplies. Rising production costs are also becoming a concern, particularly for European countries.
|
|
|
|
ALGERIA
"L’OAIC a acheté environ 500 000 à 510 000 tonnes de blé meunier à l’issue d’un appel d’offres international, à un prix estimé entre 319 et 321 dollars la tonne C&F."
|
|
ALBANIA
"Albanian farmers face higher production costs than their regional competitors, driven by heavy reliance on imported inputs, limited state support, labour shortages and weaknesses in agricultural infrastructure."
|
|
SPAIN
"Los conflictos internacionales siguen tensando el mercado nacional del cereal, con nuevas subidas en productos como el trigo y el triticale, aunque persiste una fuerte incertidumbre entre compradores y vendedores."
|
|
PORTUGAL
"The Portuguese government is preparing measures to subsidise agricultural diesel costs in an effort to ease pressure on farmers and curb rising food prices."
|
|
WORLD
"Adverse weather, the Middle East conflict and Black Sea trade disruptions pushed the FAO Food Price Index 1.9% higher in August, with wheat and maize prices rising amid growing concerns over supply."
|
|
LIBAN
"L’inflation mondiale n’explique qu’une partie de la flambée des prix au Liban : malgré la normalisation des cours internationaux, le coût de la vie continue de progresser à deux chiffres, porté notamment par l’énergie, le transport et les coûts internes."
|
|
MOROCCO
"Morocco is resuming soft wheat imports after a several-month pause and will introduce a subsidy of around $22.2 per tonne for importers from September 16 to 30."
|
|
MAROC
"Le Maroc s’impose parmi les principaux moteurs de la poussée des exportations argentines de maïs, avec 1,55 million de tonnes importées depuis l’Argentine sur les sept premiers mois de 2026, soit une hausse de 133 % sur un an."
|
|
AFRIQUE DU NORD
"L’indice FAO des prix alimentaires a atteint 133,3 points en août, faisant peser une pression accrue sur les pays comme l’Égypte et l’Algérie, fortement dépendants des importations de blé."
|
|
TÜRKIYE
"The Turkish Grain Board will offer wheat stocks held in licensed warehouses for sale through the Turkish Mercantile Exchange from 1 September, with volumes adjusted daily according to market demand and regional conditions."
|
|
|
|
|
Water, soil and input costs: growing risks for future crops?
|
|
Water scarcity, soil degradation and high fertilizer costs could hampered future agricultural production. On another note, USDA is testing new technologies for yield estimates.
|
|
|
|
WORLD
“New research finds a strong link between severe water scarcity and global wheat prices, with 3°C of warming potentially pushing average wheat prices to around three times their 2010 level.”
|
|
TUNISIA
“Water security accounts for 11.5 billion dinars, or nearly 82% of planned agricultural investment, with funding directed towards dams, desalination, water transfers and irrigation infrastructure.”
|
|
OTHER
“The USDA is testing satellite imagery, AI and machine learning to improve crop acreage and yield estimates and modernise its agricultural data collection.”
|
|
ALGERIA
“Land degradation and soil erosion are emerging as long-term challenges for Algerian agriculture, threatening soil fertility and the sustainability of agricultural production.”
|
|
MOROCCO
“FAO identifies soil erosion, salinity and declining organic carbon as major threats to agricultural land in Morocco and across the Near East and North Africa.”
|
|
WORLD
“Persistently high fertilizer and energy costs could encourage farmers to reduce corn acreage or fertilizer application, potentially limiting global production and export supplies in 2027.”
|
|
|
|
|
|
Find a more comprehensive selection of articles in several languages on our Scoop.it thread
|
|
|
|
|
Retrouvez une sélection plus complète d'articles en plusieurs langues sur notre fil Scoop.it
|
|
|
|
|
MED-Amin
3191 Route de Mende
34090 Montpellier
France
contact@med-amin.org
[33] (0)4 67 04 60 00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
